By: Franklin Otorofani, Esq.
October 18, 2010
There are few generally acceptable yardsticks with which to gauge
the material value, health and progress of a nation. Economists like
to talk about Gross Domestic Product (GDP), (which is the gross
monetary value of all goods and services produced by a nation
usually in a year, domestically); Gross National Product (GNP),
(which is the gross monetary value of all goods and services
produced by a nation both domestically and abroad, also within a
year); Per Capita Income (PCI), which is simply the gross national
income or revenue divided by her population), Human Development
Report (HDR) (which is about people themselves rather than states),
or whatever other “P” is out there in their measurement tool kit.
More and more metrics are popping up everywhere to gauge different
aspects of the economy.
Using these models how does Nigeria fare at the moment of her 50th
birthday celebrations? This timeframe is important because as stated
above we must be concerned about the present and the future not
about the past for the simple reason that the past is past and
cannot be undone.
Data from the World Bank indicate that the Nigerian economy as a
whole is valued at $168,994,000,000bn with a per capita income of
$1,140. I don’t know whether this valuation takes into account the
value of economic activities taking place at Dugbe market in Ibadan,
Ariaria Market in Aba, Ochanja Market in Onitsha, Tejuoso Market in
Lagos, Main Market in Jos or New Benin Market in Benin City, or for
that matter, the itinerant hawker in the streets of Lagos and
elsewhere in the country or even the cab driver. These activities
are properly valuated in developed nations and captured in their
estimates. Is the pepper or tomato seller in Jos represented in
these evaluations? Is the taxi driver accounted for in these
estimates? If not, I’m tempted to believe that the Nigerian economy
would be much bigger than represented if the unofficial economy was
adequately accounted for in the estimates.
Both the IMF and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) put the
nation’s GDP at 7.421% and 7.69% respectively. It’s quite remarkable
that of the 43 African countries south of the Sahara surveyed by the
IMF Nigeria attained one of the highest growths in GDP, together
with the Republic of Congo, 9.684%; Ghana 7.473, Liberia 7.898%,
Mozambique 7.001%, with Angola and Botswana coming a distant second
with GDP growth rate of 6.483% and 6.593% respectively, while South
Africa the largest economy in sub- Sahara Africa grossed 3.231%
growth in GDP projected for the year 2010-2011.
Plus or minus it is fair to conclude that Nigeria has currently
attained economic growth rate of well above 7.3% with easily
attainable target of 10% in the coming years as disclosed by the
Honorable Minister of Finance, Mr. Olusegun Aganga. In fact the CBN
governor, Mr. Lamido Sanusi, has projected 7.8% growth rate for the
remaining part of 2010.
Broken down into two broad categories of oil and non-oil sectors
statistics revealed that the oil sector recorded 3.96% while non-oil
sector recorded 8.41% according to the NBS, making non-oil sector
the bigger driver of the nation’s economic expansion. Further
breakdown of the non-oil sector shows that wholesale and retail
sector grew at whopping 11.40% which was attributed to consumer
promotions embarked upon to lure consumers to the shopping malls.
Agriculture recorded a slight drop to 5.84% from the previous year’s
growth of 5.94% in the corresponding period in 2009. But it is still
growth not decline. The same is equally true of the financial
sector, which recorded 4.3% growth as against 4.40% recorded in
corresponding period of 2009. Again that is growth not recession.
And here comes the big one-telecommunication! This sector alone
pulled off a whopping growth rate of 33.74% in the second quarter of
2010 compared to 33.62% in the corresponding period of 2009.
Manufacturing recorded 10.48% as against 10.46% in corresponding
period of 2009. There are other sectors that contributed to the
overall growth rate of 7.4% according to the IMF and 7.69% according
to the NBS, but I will stop here. The point has been made with facts
and figures drawn not just from the Nigerian authorities alone but
from the IMF.
Regionally, the IMF Staff Estimates state that while “Asia Is
Leading the Global Recovery” and Latin America is “Sustaining its
Growth Momentum”, Middle East and North Africa is “Recovering
Strongly”, “CIS Region Is Experiencing Modest Recovery”, and Europe
is facing a “Gradual and Uneven Recovery” and the recovery in the
United States is “Moderating in the Face of Debt and Continued
Uncertainty”, “Growth Is Accelerating” in Sub Saharan Africa”, and
in fact, in all of the African continent as whole of which Nigeria
is one of the prime drivers by virtue of the size of its economy and
further growth prospects.
There is no question therefore that the Nigerian economy is on the
upswing with her GDP rising to 7.4% in the current year of which
non-oil revenue is said to account for a significant chunk of the
upswing. Now, if that is what naysayers call economic recession, I
would say bring in on and let’s have more of such “recessions!” If
the nation can sustain such “recession” as the IMF has predicted
well into the immediate future, then her goal of making it to the
20th largest economy by the year 20/20 becomes ever more feasible.
However, I’m first to recognize that it is not enough to record
impressive economic growth. For such growth to be meaningful, it
must be translated positively in the lives of ordinary citizens.
That is where a purposeful, proactive, and visionary leadership
comes in because economies could grow without the citizens feeling
the impact of such growth in their lives.
It is the duty of government to find ways and means of reflecting
economic growth in the living conditions of its people because in
the end economic growth means nothing if not reflected positively in
the lives of the citizens.
Yet the reality is that the material conditions of a people cannot
change for the better in the absence of economic growth. Therefore,
ordinary common sense dictates that government’s efforts must first
and foremost be directed at economic growth because the attainment
of it is a pre-requisite for the citizens’ economic empowerment and
social wellbeing. Wealth must be produced before it is distributed
and that’s a no brainer. For that reason therefore anyone who scoffs
at economic growth is either naïve or outright mischievous or both.
To the extent therefore that Nigeria is currently launched on the
path of sustainable economic growth one can only urge the government
to maintain the momentum and accelerate the growth.
I can sit here whining and crying all day and all night about the
failures of the past or confront the present and the future with all
the resources at my disposal. These are some of the things that give
me cause for hope because I’m not listening to politicians and
cynics who want to paint everything black in order to promote their
own political ambitions, but to experts and their evidence. Those
who don’t believe statistics emanating from Nigerian authorities can
at least believe those coming from credible international
organizations like the IMF and the World Bank, which are the
definitive and authoritative sources of global economic information
and analyses. And anyone who would neither believe the Nigerian
authorities nor international authorities surely has a problem.
Unfortunately, I’m not in a position to help such individual because
I’m not a psycho-therapist. But I have some suggestions:
Such individuals could look up to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),
which has set certain development benchmarks for developing
countries to meet for solace. Or perhaps look up to Jigni Y. Thinley,
Prime Minister of 700,000 population Budhist kingdom of Buthan, who
would rather we dumped all these hackneyed gauges and simply adopt
happiness as the only true measurement of not just economic but
national progress. What a refreshing proposition! That would
probably make some cynics happy.
The Prime Minister has added another yardstick to measure a nation’s
growth and development, which he called Gross National Happiness (GNH)
as the only authentic yardstick for measuring a nation’s growth and
development. Using the happiness model, his nation reportedly fared
well under his rule. Applying this yardstick only 3% of his tiny
kingdom’s population polled in 2005 said they were unhappy while 52%
said they were happy and the rest said they were very happy,
according to my information source. Not bad at all!
But the happiness measure had been applied somewhat in Nigeria
before which ranked Nigerians are some of the happiest people on
earth, their economic conditions notwithstanding suggesting or
indicating that such totally subjective model might not be flawless
after all and might very well mask the miseries that rule the lives
of many that they chose not to reveal publicly or officially to the
outside world through such measures.
In a global survey of 65 nations conducted by UK’s New Scientist
magazine, between1199-2001 Nigeria topped the list of the Happiness
Index. Yes the survey found that Nigerians are the happiest people
on the face of the earth! According to the survey, “New Zealand
ranked 15 for overall satisfaction, the US 16th, Australia 20th and
Britain 24th - although Australia beats the other three for
day-to-day happiness."
This is an indication that happiness is not necessarily a function
of material wellbeing. What does this tell you, the reader? It shows
Nigerians are happier than Americans, Britons, Australians in fact
citizens of any other developed nation. The survey found that
materialism is "a happiness suppressant" which helps to explain why
“happiness levels have remained virtually the same in industrialised
countries since World War II, although incomes have risen
considerably,” according to the New Scientist magazine.
So before the next would be “Andrew” grabs his briefcase and calls
it quits with Nigeria and jet out abroad, he should understand
clearly that he’s going to join the ranks of unhappy people in
whatever country he might emigrate to in Europe or the Americas.
I see it everyday in the United States, for crying out loud! I see
anger and frustrations welling up it in the streets of New Ark, New
Jersey; Brooklyn, New York; in the ghettoes in Chicago, Washington,
DC and California. I see it on roadways, subways, on buses, on
trains, and in homes and offices. I see it in blood of innocent
citizens flowing in the streets. I see it in bullets flying in the
air hitting innocent bystanders in the streets or hitting innocent
folks relaxing in their living rooms through their windows. I see
the forlorn and distant looks in the faces of those who have
suddenly been rendered homeless in their own country because they
defaulted in their mortgage payments. I feel the anger and
frustrations written all over the long faces of laid off auto
workers in the state of Michigan, home to once throbbing and
bubbling, but now utterly desolate Detroit, home to America’s auto
industry. Heck, I see it at Tea Party rallies!
It’s unhappy people that pull out guns and cut down their entire
family members or former co-workers just for getting fired from
their jobs. It is unhappy peoples that lay siege in schools and
begin to shoot anything in sight including fellow students and
faculty members. It’s unhappy people that would put a bullet in the
head of another driver over mere right of way arguments. It’s
unhappy people that put bullets in their own heads and terminate
their lives. Want to see unhappy peoples in action? Welcome to the
planet Americana, where anger and frustrations rule the waves!
It’s alright to crow about public assistance to the jobless and the
disposed. But tell that to a man who just lost his job or a family
that just lost its home. Oh yes, go ahead and tell them that they’re
still better off than their counterparts in Nigeria and see if
you’ll come out alive from that encounter.
What the results of that survey suggest, however, is that happiness
is a cultural thing and oftentimes unhappiness is the result of
unfulfilled expectations. Some of those high expectations may or may
not be realistic or even feasible in the first place. There are
several folks running around holding on to unrealistic expectations
and unattainable goals at least, not in the short run.
Imagine a middle-aged, middle-class African-American woman with a
good paying job venting her frustrations at President Obama during
his town-hall meeting in Pennsylvania, USA; that the man she voted
for in 2011 has disappointed her and she is tired of defending him,
all because he, Obama, had promised to lift up the American middle
class during his campaign in 2008 and he had failed to do so. Just
imagine that for a second and one begins to wonder what some people
really want. She still has her job while others are losing theirs,
she still has her home while others are losing theirs, she still has
her kids in college benefitting from Obama’s educational policies,
while others can’t afford to go to college, yet she is frustrated
about the president’s performance! What does she want? The whole
world!
Again, imagine, for instance, the American voters expecting that
President Obama would turn the US battered economy around in less
than two years and when he failed to achieve that expectation they
are now madly unhappy about him, threatening to throw his party out
of power in the next midterm election! Or imagine, for that matter,
some people in Nigeria expecting that uninterrupted power should
begin to flow to their homes and offices upon President Jonathan
taking office as substantive president of the nation.
But then again politicians promise too much to get elected.
Unfortunately, the electorate has not wizened up to the unrealistic
promises of politicians.
However, as with all things done in anger, handing control of
Congress to Republicans out of frustration is guaranteed to
exacerbate their present economic conditions and thus drive up their
unhappiness index by several notches when literarily the Republicans
grind the US government to a halt with their rabid anti-Obama
agenda.
Where are you getting your economic information from? Is it from
career politicians, beer parlor drunks or from economists,
professional bodies and credible organizations like the World Bank,
IMF, ADB, Central Bank, NBS, or other UN agencies, just to mention
but a few? The source of your economic information and analyses
matters because it could make all the difference between hope on the
one hand and gloom and doom on the other hand. A lot of innocent
folks are plain victims of misinformation, disinformation,
distortions and outright lies peddled by individuals with vested
interests, because they have not taken the time to find out things
for themselves and rely on others to spoon fed them with utter
garbage.
Politicians know that the ordinary Joe and Jane have no time to find
out the truth and probably don’t even care about the truth either
and would prefer to be fed lies and half truths by political
demagogues because it suits their political inclinations and
proclivities. An individual who hates a sitting president might
prefer to be fed with outright lies and half truths about the
economy if those lies and half truths help to portray the president
in negative light before the public. The reverse is equally true
with supporters of a sitting president who don’t want to hear or see
no evil about the sitting president.
But it is important to put matters in clearer perspectives while
undertaking a dispassionate analysis of important issues like the
economic performance of a nation totally devoid of political
inflections and colorations.
>>Read
the complete article here
Franklin Otorofani, Esq. Contact: mudiagaone@yahoo.com
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